FST JOURNAL

There is no doubt that artificial intelligence will have a transformative impact on work. There is the potential for significant economic benefit, and many new types of jobs may emerge. Equally, other types of roles will change significantly, and some will disappear completely.

What are these changes likely to be, and how can companies and governments prepare? In Northern Ireland, Matrix (Northern Ireland’s independent advisory body on science and technology) published a report on AI and the Future of Work in September 2025, exploring the benefits, impacts and implications. The report was commissioned on behalf of the Department for the Economy to explore how Northern Ireland can position itself at the forefront of AI-driven economic transformation whilst addressing the profound societal and ethical questions arising from AI’s impact on work, workers, and the nature of employment.

On Wednesday 22nd October, the Foundation jointly organised a discussion event with Matrix, and Queen’s University Belfast.

Speakers included:

• Patricia O’Hagan, Deputy Chair of Matrix
• Professor Helen, Chief Scientific and Technology Adviser of the Northern Ireland Assembly
• Professor Philip Hanna, Dean of Education at the School of Electronics, Electrical Engineering and Computer Science at Queens University Belfast
• Dr David Jordan, Lecturer in Economics at Queens University Belfast, and Ministerial Adviser on Productivity

The first speaker, Patricia O’Hagan, Deputy Chair of Matrix (Northern Ireland’s independent Science and Technology Advisory Panel), introduced the findings of the report, AI and the Future of Work in Northern Ireland. This explores one the most pressing questions of our time: how is artificial intelligence transforming the nature of work, and what does it mean for the people, the economy and the future in Northern Ireland? The signs of disruption were already visible through many sectors, and so too were the opportunities. AI is no longer a horizon technology. It is already trans- forming the nature of work. It is reshaping sectors, disrupting business models and redefining career paths. The report examines AI’s projected impact through to 2030, based on current capabilities and adoption trajectories. It focuses on six key objectives:

1. Understanding how AI is reshaping workforce structures in an AI powered economy,
2. Assessing sectoral susceptibility and displacement risks,
3. Developing plausible futures with timelines for reshaping work across Northern Ireland,
4. Economic and productivity implications,
5. Governance, ethics and societal implications,
6. Actionable strategies.

When Matrix created the report, several key trends quickly stood out. First, the pace of technological change. AI is evolving from a supportive tool into an autonomous decision maker. This shift is already being see in finance, healthcare and supply chains. Also, the workforce disruption is uneven and is concentrated in entry level and knowledge-based roles. These risks deepen inequalities by gender, age and digital access, with women particularly exposed as most of the threatened areas are dominated by female workers.

What we thought could take years is unfolding in months. In the US workforce, the use of AI jumped from 30% to 46% in just six months, an increase of over 50%. The level of uncertainty is high. Global forecasts range from large-scale job losses to net job creation outcomes that depend heavily on how AI is implemented and governed.

The report revealed that AI’s impact is uneven across sectors, organisations and individuals. Knowledge intensive industries such as Information and Communication Technology (ICT) and professional scientific services are already feeling disruption, along with finance, insurance and admin support.

Northern Ireland faces specific vulnerabilities because of its economic structure. Much of its foreign direct investment has centred on back-office roles, which are the roles that are most exposed to AI automation. Professional services, including legal accountancy and technical consultancy are an important part of NI’s economy and serve UK and international markets. However, the traditional billable hours model is under pressure, as clients are predicted to expect AI- related productivity gains to be reflected in pricing.

Northern Ireland is also an SME economy, with more than 81,000 registered small and medium-sized businesses employing most of its workforce. AI adop- tion in SMEs lags behind the larger firms that are already transforming their operations. However, this also provides an opportunity. The accessibility of AI means it can be deployed on existing digital infrastructure. The Northern Ireland economy sits at the lower end of UK productivity and innovation rankings, but with targeted support to upskill SMEs and build AI capability, it can unlock new efficiencies, boost productivity and free up capacity for innovation, driving growth in new products, services and markets.

During the making of the report, a working group was created to identify 10 critical uncertainties that would shape AI’s impact on work. They focused on two key uncertainties – the pace of AI adoption (whether it would be gradual and managed or rapid and disruptive), and the capacity for workforce reskilling (whether people and systems can keep up with the technological change). By combining these two dimensions, the group developed four scenarios, each one painting a different picture of Northern Ireland’s AI-powered future and the actions that can make the difference between disruption and opportunity.

Ms O’Hagan concluded that Northern Ireland has what it takes to lead in the age of AI. It has world-class research in cybersecurity and health technology, a culture of collaboration and the agility that comes with small scale. Northern Ireland stands at a critical juncture. AI is not a distant horizon, it is already here, shaping the world around us. Northern Ireland has the talent, creativity and collaborative spirit, but leadership now demands urgency and unity of purpose.

The second speaker was Professor Helen McCarthy, appointed the Chief Scientific and Technical Adviser to the Northern Ireland Assembly in June 2024. Her main role is to embed science and technol- ogy across policymaking, across all Government departments. Alongside an Office for Science and Technology sits an Office for AI and Digital. There are a number of different strands and projects which use the Offices as an advocate for change. Some key things coming out of this are the use of AI and data, and that one of the areas of data to flag is women in STEM. Professor McCarthy added that we are never going to embed true change and disruption unless we include everybody in the conversation. As an example of a network in this space, she cited the Stemettes – a social enterprise working to “engage, inform and con- nect the next generation of women and non-binary people into Science, Technology, Engineering, Arts and Maths (STEAM)”.

It is the Office for Science and Technology’s duty to help the Civil Service upscale in what has been a very difficult and technologically challenging time. A digital review across the Civil Service, and had found that every level was at beginner level.

After a meeting with Sir Ian Chapman, the head of UKRI, Professor McCarthy said that her team were particularly keen to “join ourselves up”. With this in mind, she placed a science champion in each of the Government departments, with the aim of getting areas of research interest (ARIs) into each department. There are now 80 ARIs going through a process of approval, with 60 of them having AI-based technologies that departments want to work with. This is a golden opportunity to join the dots between the Post-Graduate Award Scheme and the Department for the Econ- omy, which she described as the other levers that can be pulled to help support Northern Ireland Government departments and do the relevant research projects. It was also important to get the departments thinking about what they want out of the research. Getting the public on board and being open and transparent is key. Professor McCarthy also touched on the software training needs of the Civil Service as well as the need for better shareability and collaboration. For example, the Northern Ireland Civil Service had 110 million documents sitting in a format that was inaccessible to every AI tool. It is taking a systems-wide approach to rectify that and transition to a more accessible net- work of resources. The Office is drafting its AI strategy in collaboration with several external and internal stakeholders. Taking a collaborative approach is key and the strategy will be published soon.

The third speaker was Professor Philip Hanna, Dean of Education at the Faculty of Engineering and Physical Sciences at Queen’s University. He explored skills and how education relates to that area. He talked about an area of the Matrix report, which makes pre- dictions based on specific observations or an “inductive response” with regard to AI literacy and complementary human skills. From the perspective of those upskilling, and those reskilling, alongside education systems, we must be concerned about the future suc- cess of individuals going through those systems.

As an example of why why AI will have an impact on jobs, Professor Hanna discussed a recent benchmark. The ‘GPTval’ is an evaluation framework introduced by OpenAI to look at economically relevant jobs and measure the performance of AI mod- els on real-world, economically valuable tasks. He concluded that we could say with confidence that AI is going to have an impact on a significant number of job roles. But what does that mean in the longer term? What are the questions around jobs? What are the questions around society?

With these questions for context, what skills will individuals, either already established in a role or entering into one, need to find success in their future? Referencing the Matrix report, assuming that, inside a job or a team, people are still fulfilling particular aspects of their role, but with AI taking on some tasks, it will be essential for the team to have skills around AI and data that should include domain expertise. 

Big picture thinking

In terms of thinking, evaluative and analytical skills, these would likely need to be at a higher systems level – or ‘big picture’ thinking. To enable people to be able to use AI in a way that is productive and is beneficial, Professor Hanna argued that we need individuals who are curious, resilient, who can self-learn, and who have passion. He said that ‘the complementary human skills’ mentioned in the Matrix report will do a lot of heavy lifting in the future.

Thinking about AI in learning, specifically, it is a double-edged sword. According to Professor Hanna, all of the time, effort and struggle that we put into learning is what ‘learning’ actually feels like, and in doing that, our brains are activated: we are setting down and establishing our revised neural pathways. AI can provide explanation and examples to practice on. It can provide feedback and can reflect upon it. It can also just give us an answer, but with very little work on our part. However, we must make sure we are looking at the journey to a destination in education and not just the outcome.

The fourth and final speaker was Dr David Jor- dan, Lecturer in Economics at Queen’s University Belfast. He and his team carry out research for the Northern Ireland Productivity Forum, which is led by the university. The definition of productivity is different for different people. His team approached productivity by thinking of it from an economy-wide perspective and in terms of labour productivity and the total value of output produced for a given amount of work. The key thing with productivity is that it is what ultimately determines our economy’s health and standard of living. It determines the wages that businesses can pay, and the taxes that can be generated for public spending. This ultimately feeds through to the competitiveness of an economy.

The recent stagnation of productivity growth in the UK and in Northern Ireland is a key challenge for the economy. Dr Jordan emphasised the idea of there being a “high road” and a “low road” to sustainable productivity growth and that we need to get away from the idea that productivity is simply about efficiency.

While efficiency is an important part of seeing improved productivity, it is also about the value of what we produce. The most recent data from the Office for National Statistics puts the productivity gap in Northern Ireland at around 12% when measured per hour worked relative to UK level. Over the past 10-15 years, Northern Ireland’s productivity has been around 15-20% below the UK level, although there has been dashboard last year showed Northern Ireland to be around 20% below the level of Irish productivity.

Northern Ireland ‘lags behind’ other regions. Dr Jordan and colleagues had looked at the reasons for lower productivity in Northern Ire- land’s economy. Key challenges and areas that deter- mine Northern Ireland’s productivity potential included:

1. Business performance and characteristics,
2. Skills, in terms of employees,
3. Policy and institutions,
4. The health and wellbeing of individuals more broadly within society,
5. Investment infrastructure and connectivity.

The team looked at this set of areas through the perspective of the business environment that firms are operating in. In the past, the key elements sup- porting growth in Northern Ireland had tended to be technology (for example textiles), investment and policy. The main takeaway from the research is the potential tension between productivity and employment, seen in terms of people losing their jobs, for example. As a result Dr Jordan argued the need for support for improvements and structural change over the long term. He said that this will be inescapable, because Northern Ireland is a small economy operating in a global environment.

You can listen to the full event, including the Q&A that followed, at https://bit.ly/FST_AI-work.